中國經濟改革發展之路Economic Reform and Development the Chinese Way

作者介紹：厲以寧，北京大學教授、博士生導師。他的經濟理論對我國30年來的經濟改革與發展產生了深遠影響。

內容簡介：收選厲以寧教授的16篇論文，反映了作者改革開放以來的主要學術觀點，精辟闡述中國經濟改革中的重大議題等。資深翻譯家凌原翻譯，附經濟學術語對照表。

要使當前我國的社會就業問題得到妥善解決，歸根到底有待于在經濟增長過程中不斷地創造出新的工作崗位。如果無法增加新的工作崗位，那么即使人口增 長率很低，只要采用了新技術，對勞動力的需要仍會減少。但怎樣才能增加新工作崗位呢？這里涉及社會主義制度下多種經濟成分并存、社會主義公有制多種形式并 存的問題，也涉及經濟管理體制、技術創新類型、國民經濟各部門比例關系以及經濟增長速度等問題。這些方面的問題不是本文所要探討的內容。本文所要討論的 是：假定通過所有制形式、體制、比例關系等方面的調整和改革，假定國民經濟有較大幅度的增長，確實創造出相當多的新工作崗位，我國的社會就業問題能否得到 解決呢？如果考慮到我國社會就業問題的“結構性”，那么可以斷言，在教育事業沒有相應的發展、教育結構未作相應的調整的條件下，勞動力結構與經濟結構之間 不相適應的情況是不會消除的。“人找事”和“事找人”的矛盾將會長期存在。教育對于解決就業問題的重要作用，正在于它有助于解決這一矛盾。The solution to our nation’s employment problems, in the final analysis, is to create a constant supply of new jobs to keep pace with economic growth. If we cannot create new jobs, the need for labor will shrink with the adoption of new technology, even if population growth is kept at a low level. How to create new jobs? This involves the diverse economic sectors and forms of public ownership under the socialist system, as well as such factors as economic administration, various types of technical innovation, and the ratios between sectors and economic growth rate. These issues, however, are beyond the scope of this study. The topic at hand is this: Supposing substantial numbers of new jobs are created by readjusting and revamping the ownership structure, the economic system and the ratios between economic sectors, and by riding the nation’s robust economic growth, can the nation come to grips with its employment problems? Given the “structural” nature of employment in our country, we can assert categorically that the disparity between the structure of the workforce and that of the national economy will never be eradicated without corresponding development in education and without restructuring the education system. The dilemma between “people hunting for jobs” and “jobs seeking takers, ”too, will remain for a long time to come. The important role of education in tackling employment problems rests precisely on its ability to deliver the nation from that dilemma.

發展教育事業和增加對教育事業的支出，可以使勞動力的結構適合于經濟增長對不同技術水平和不同工種的勞動力的需要。在這里，重要的問題是使教育的 結構同經濟增長速度、經濟結構的變化相適應，根據長期經濟增長的需要來調整各種類型學校的設置、各種專業的設置， 以及作出各種不同學習期限的安排。從長期考察，不外乎以下兩種可能性。一種可能性是：從長期看，待業人數和未來新達到就業年齡的人數之和可能小于預計的職 位空缺額，那么調整的重點將放在進一步提高教育水平、提高勞動力質量上，使每一個受過教育或訓練的勞動力能發揮更大的作用，從而提高勞動生產率，進一步推 動新技術的采用和推廣。這樣，既可以適應經濟增長的需要，又可以減少職位的空缺額。另一種可能性是：從長期看，待業人數和未來新達到就業年齡的人數之和可 能大于預計的職位空缺額，那么調整時應當是提高與普及并重，既為國民經濟培養有較高水平的專家，又使大量待業者有一技之長，便于找到合適的工作。這時，除 了有必要進一步調整經濟結構，以便增加職位空缺額以外，特別應注意發展中等技術和職業教育，給待業者以就業訓練。還可以適當地延長在校學生的學習期限，一 方面減少準備加入就業者行列的人數，另一方面提高他們的文化技術水平，以適應今后經濟增長的需要。換句話說，與其讓青年人在無技術、少知識的情況下待業， 不如讓他們多學習些知識與技能。Developing education and spending more on it can help dovetail the workforce structure with a growing economy’s need for workers at different technical levels and in different fields of work. To achieve that end, we have got to adapt our educational structure to the changing economic growth rate and structure, and act on the long-term need of economic growth to readjust the categories of schools and the setup of academic programs, and to variegate the schooling terms. Long years of observation reveal two options in this regard. In the first option, when existing and prospective job-seekers are not outnumbered by anticipated unfilled job vacancies, the main thrust of our effort can be directed at further improving education and raising workforce quality, so that every worker that has been educated or trained can qualify for more demanding jobs, thereby enhancing labor productivity and further promoting the adoption of new technology. In this way, not only can the needs of economic growth be met, but the number of unfilled job vacancies can be curtailed as well. In the other option, when the total number of existing and prospective job-hunters outgrows the anticipated number of unfilled job vacancies, we can lay equal stress on improving and universalizing education, so that more high-caliber professionals can be cultivated for the national economy while legions of job-waiters are tooled with one kind of skill or another to qualify for suitable jobs. To achieve this end, apart from further restructuring the economy to increase job vacancies, attention should also be paid to developing secondary technical and vocational education so as to put more jobseekers through training. The school term for students can be lengthened so as to curtail the number of prospective job hunters and better prepare students culturally and technically for future economic growth needs. In other words, we would rather let our youngsters learn more knowledge and skill than keep them waiting for jobs when they are ill prepared in both skill and knowledge.

在上述兩種可能性中，從我國具體情況來看，可以認為在相當長的時間內后一種可能性更大，所以我國教育事業的發展和教育結構的調整不能只著眼于提高，而忽略教育在解決“結構性”社會就業問題上的作用。As things stand today, it is believed the second option is more workable for China for a long time to come. Thus, in education development and reform, we cannot go single-mindedly after improvement to the neglect of the role of education in tackling the “structural” employment problem.

在這里，還應當注意到，教育結構調整不是一勞永逸的。一方面，經濟增長本身要求教育部門輸送大批有一定技術文化水平的、適應經濟增長需要的勞動 者，否則經濟增長很難穩定地、持續地進行下去；另一方面，隨著經濟的增長，部門結構和地區結構總是處在不斷變動之中，技術構成狀況也會不斷發生變化，這就 要求教育結構相應地與之配合。一定的國民經濟發展水平是與一定的教育結構相適應的，前者變動了，后者必須隨之變動。這也是我國在制定長期人力資源規劃時應 當考慮的一個方面。We should also remember that education reform cannot be accomplished overnight. For one thing, economic growth itself demands that our schools supply large numbers of well-educated and skilled workers who measure up to its needs. Failing this, stable and sustainable economic growth will be out of the question. For another, the economy’s ever-changing sectoral, regional and technological structures call for the adaptation of the education system. A certain level of national economic development is always consistent with a certain structure of education, with the latter changing in sync with the former. This fact should be considered when mapping out longterm national human resource plans.

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 厲以寧經典論文首次結集出版英文版，海外版已授權劍橋大學出版社

 資深翻譯家凌原翻譯，附經濟學術語對照表。

 厲以寧 凌原

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